Author Topic: Washington Plaza  (Read 128347 times)

Offline abcdefghijk

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #60 on: April 18, 2016, 10:32:54 PM »
People...this isn't about rich folks buying condos...

It's a worldwide demographic trend.  A shift in fashion.

Young couples are no longer keen to move out "to the suburbs".  They want to remain in NYC.

And so the price of apartments "nearer the action" will increase due to demand.

But these are very middle class folks...nothing to do with being wealthy.

Also...I believe that old folks are no longer "retiring in Florida"...they are remaining in NYC...and that adds to the scarcity of apartments...and increase in prices.

After WW2...the fashion was to move to the suburbs...and that has now been reversing for the past 10 or so years. 

The "Levittown Experiment" is winding down after 75 years...

And the "City Living Lifestyle" is cranking up again.

That's what's behind it all.

In 75 years it may all turn around again...(or perhaps outer space will beckon?....)

But it's a worldwide urban phenomenon...definitely not limited to Jackson Heights...which just happens to be "kinda near the action" of Manhattan/Brooklyn... and our own action, of course.

Also, I believe old folks are no longer retiring in Florida in great numbers...they're remaining in NYC...adding to the scarcity of apartments...and pushing up prices.

Another upward force for real estate costs.





« Last Edit: April 18, 2016, 10:48:28 PM by abcdefghijk »

Offline CaptainFlannel

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #61 on: April 19, 2016, 11:25:51 AM »
I'm sorry, but $250K for a one-bedroom in a post war building is not middle class prices. That's a $50K down payment plus money in the back afterwards. And that's this neighborhood, not shiny new condos in LIC. And it's also not something that someone earning $45K a year, and also paying back student loan debt, is going to have saved up before the age of 40.

If we want to be a viable city, we have to actually have places for people earning $15/hour (or less) to live. Those people are the ones doing our laundry, preparing our food in restaurants, stocking the shelves at the stores we frequent, etc. And they aren't earning $45k a year, that's for sure.

Offline queenskid2

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #62 on: April 19, 2016, 12:36:02 PM »
CaptainFlannel, you raise a good point: what does "middle class" mean in NYC?  You mention someone making $45,000 a year.  But is that middle class in a city like New York, or is it closer to lower middle class/poverty level.  Can someone making that much afford to by any condo or coop in the city?

Offline dssjh

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #63 on: April 19, 2016, 05:36:06 PM »
CaptainFlannel, you raise a good point: what does "middle class" mean in NYC?  You mention someone making $45,000 a year.  But is that middle class in a city like New York, or is it closer to lower middle class/poverty level.  Can someone making that much afford to by any condo or coop in the city?

 someone making $45,000 a year will net about $2400-$2500 per month. let's say that person wants to buy a one bedroom. taking a mortgage of $200,000 (about what you'd expect on a  $250,000 purchase) requires a monthly payment of just over $1000. add in $700 per month in maintenance and you're left with $700 per month.

that doesn't go very far.

Offline jh_coop_buyer

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #64 on: April 19, 2016, 07:54:17 PM »
In NYC, about 70% rental units and 30% owner occupied units.  There are some people, who can afford buying a coop but choose to rent by choice. It is reasonable to say that if one is able to afford to buy a coop, this person is probably the upper of the middle class for the people who are living in the neighborhood.

Offline CaptainFlannel

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #65 on: April 19, 2016, 09:09:35 PM »
I think it's less of an issue of can they afford to buy in NYC, but can they afford to live in NYC, period.

Before most people buy, they have to rent, unless they are lucky enough to be able to live rent free with their parents. A rising tide raises all boats, except for the school teacher and cop earning $45k a year (and that's a typical starting salary for those solidly middle class professions), who have to shell out $1800 a month to rent a one-bedroom in Kew Gardens, that doesn't leave a lot left over to put in to savings to buy a down payment. And if one doesn't partner up, that person is almost guaranteed to be living with roommates well in to his or her 30s. Wages have been stagnant for decades, so the middle class actually isn't doing better than their parents and grandparents did a generation ago. The middle class is worse off.

When it becomes impossible for the people who educate our children and serve us in law enforcement to afford living in the city, let alone the people prepping your food at the restaurants we frequent, it's apparent there's a problem. I don't have the answers, but affordable housing is a must. A city simply can't function if only the upper middle class and rich can afford to live in it. Someone has to clean the streets.

Offline Palermo

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #66 on: April 19, 2016, 10:43:04 PM »
I'll add to what abcdefghijk said.  It's only a matter of time before we hit peak oil and raising energy cost will make living in a city with a well developed transit system even more desirable.

The median household income of Brooklyn in 2000 was $31,315.  In 2014, the income increased to $44,850, but when adjusted for inflation, the increase was negligible ($44,178 is the amount $31,315 becomes after inflation).  So its not that there is more wealth in the borough, its just more inequitably distributed.  That's an issue bigger than what they city can fully address.   Its population increased by 130,000 people (5% of the whole borough), putting further pressure on a relatively static inventory.  Supply and demand.

Offline abcdefghijk

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #67 on: April 19, 2016, 11:40:13 PM »
My guess for affordability is that the suburbs will become less expensive.

And the inner city neighborhoods will continue to rise in price.

So folks with less money will be able to afford houses with yards. (The American Dream!) While the middle class live in apartments "nearer the action".

These are lifestyle choices and exactly the opposite of the case 25 years ago.  When folks fled to the suburbs and the inner city was cheap.

It's simply fashion and demographic trends, that's all.

I think this situation is already reflected in the prices of homes on Long Island.

I am confused as to why folks are worried about it.

It's the spirit of the times.  The Zeitgeist.

And folks with less money might be laughing and luxuriating in their space in the suburbs (living THE AMERICAN DREAM of a generation ago)...and scratching their heads as to why the middle class pays big for cramped conditions and less square footage in apartments... and hanging out in cafes. (Which is kinda THE EUROPEAN DREAM)...

 







Offline dssjh

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #68 on: April 19, 2016, 11:58:45 PM »
that's definitely an interesting hypothesis, abc, though i'm not sure we're near that tipping point just yet.

the suburbs of nyc are still showing year-over-year increases that are well outstripping typical pay raises (and overall inflation), according to recent figures....but who knows what the next decade will bring.

http://www.newsday.com/business/home-prices-up-7-7-percent-in-nassau-5-percent-in-suffolk-1.10438867

Offline abcdefghijk

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #69 on: April 20, 2016, 12:29:43 AM »
This article below is from a year ago...

It says LONG ISLAND is the second slowest market in the country.

It's obvious what is happening, a person just needs to talk to younger folks...they'll tell you the future. After all, it's in their hands!

Offline Simka

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #70 on: April 20, 2016, 12:56:20 AM »
Article in the Real Deal about the Washington Plaza conversion.
http://therealdeal.com/2016/04/18/prices-jump-at-jackson-heights-rental-to-co-op-conversion/
"Existing tenants can buy a pad at the 190-unit building for 10 percent less than market rate, but units have appreciated in value by as much as $160,000, and many of the residents who agreed to convert the complex in 2014 are now on the outside looking in."

That contains incorrect information. No residents "agreed to convert the complex in 2014." There was nothing to agree to at that point, and besides, agreeing to the conversion was never an option, since the tenants' agreement was neither sought nor needed. It's more like "many of the residents who expressed interest in purchasing in 2014 are now unable to afford the current insider prices for their apartments."

Offline Simka

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #71 on: April 20, 2016, 01:20:14 AM »
Also...I believe that old folks are no longer "retiring in Florida"...they are remaining in NYC...and that adds to the scarcity of apartments...and increase in prices.
It's mind-boggling that there's a scarcity of apartment units in New York City. Of course, I know there's a scarcity of available affordable apartments, no question about that. But for years now (except for a slowdown after 2008), developers have been building luxury high-rises all over Manhattan and in Williamsburg, Long Island City, Park Slope along Fourth Avenue, and other areas. Are they really all completely filled up? And who buys or rents them? I make an unarguably middle-class salary, but I wouldn't even be able to afford a 400-square-foot studio in one of those buildings. And the rentals in them are just as out of my reach.

You'd think that with all this massive luxury construction, regular old buildings would start to have more vacancies and prices in them would start to come down, but I don't see that happening. I always hear about wealthy foreigners buying condos in NYC to use when they come to visit, so maybe they account for some of it.

My guess for affordability is that the suburbs will become less expensive.

And the inner city neighborhoods will continue to rise in price.

So folks with less money will be able to afford houses with yards. (The American Dream!)

That's great--people who can't afford to live in the city will have to move to the suburbs, and will have to pay to commute into the city to their low-paying jobs!

As others have said above, the dearth of affordable housing in the city is a serious problem. Unless you're upper middle class or above, finding a place you can afford is a huge challenge. And nothing is being done about it, not even by De Blasio, who made so many promises on that front.  :P
« Last Edit: April 20, 2016, 01:33:54 AM by Simka »

Offline NYC Peromyscus

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #72 on: April 20, 2016, 06:51:12 AM »
A lot of those luxury apartments are bought by overseas investors parking their (often shady) money, or by people that are new residents in the city, so don't do much to alleviate the short supply.

The only way you could create more affordable housing in NYC would be to build tens of thousands (maybe a few hundred thousand) of new units. But NIMBYism is strong and current residents will oppose most such developments. This recent NYTimes article about San Francisco is interesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/17/business/economy/san-francisco-housing-tech-boom-sf-barf.html

The Northern Boulevard corridor and Sunnyside Yards could likely support such a building boom.  Would likely require massive rezoning so housing could be built on commercial space (i.e. all those crappy car dealerships). The M / R stations in that corridor are much less crowded than others in Queens and could support the increase.

Offline CaptainFlannel

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #73 on: April 20, 2016, 08:32:09 AM »
I think this situation is already reflected in the prices of homes on Long Island.

I am confused as to why folks are worried about it.

And folks with less money might be laughing and luxuriating in their space in the suburbs (living THE AMERICAN DREAM of a generation ago)...and scratching their heads as to why the middle class pays big for cramped conditions and less square footage in apartments... and hanging out in cafes. (Which is kinda THE EUROPEAN DREAM)...

You mean the price of homes in Long Island where people who grew up there can't afford to buy there?

You are seriously confused about why people are worried about affordable housing for the middle class and lower middle class? Or those who are scraping by on $15 an hour or less? I believe the reason you are looking for is called empathy, compassion, being a decent human being.

Do you suppose the prep cook or wait staff at that cafe you are talking about can realistically pay the train or bus pass to live in Long Island, upstate, or the Poconos and commute 3-4 hours round trip each day? You can't expect a world class city with all the amenities, and then fail to provide affordable housing for the people who actually provide those amenities. Think.

Offline abcdefghijk

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Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #74 on: April 20, 2016, 08:41:13 AM »
Hah.

I was brought up in a migrant family.

Poor migrants.

I don't think ever, in the history of humankind, has it been easy to be poor.

But even though my childhood definitely had almost zero materialistic things...it was fine.
We simply found other creative ways to have fun. And cherished different values.

So I guess I am not as frightened of poverty as you guys.

Because I know, with the right positive attitudes, you can transcend it.

And not end up bitter! Hah.








Jackson Heights Life

Re: Washington Plaza
« Reply #74 on: April 20, 2016, 08:41:13 AM »