Author Topic: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections  (Read 10176 times)

Offline agentarmen

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2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« on: October 19, 2014, 02:21:01 AM »
Wanted to share our latest article on Jackson heights pricing projections, which corolates with an article dating back to May 30th 2013. Direct link: http://www.jacksonheightslistings.com/2015-jackson-heights-real-estate-pricing-projections/

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2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
October 19th, 2014

You may recall the article we published on May 30th 2013 titled Unemployment Improves, Jackson Heights Real Estate Market Soars, where we projected quote: “median price for renovated Jackson Heights one bedroom units will reach $300,000 + in the coming year and two bedroom units will trade in the area of $450,000.” With that prediction proving accurate I believe now is a time for a new projection.

Based on everything we are experiencing first hand, we now believe that towards the fall of 2015 median price for renovated one bedrooms in Jackson Heights will reach $350,000 and median price for renovated two bedrooms will reach $525,000.

Though we take pride in our consistency of being in tune with our local market, our projection from May 30th of 2013 was based strictly on professional instinct. Today we are projecting based on many other markers already present in our marketplace and in a much healthier economic environment.

www.JacksonHeightsListings.com
Armen Meschian
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker

CORE
673 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10065
t:     212-612-9694
c:     917-848-6928
f:     212-612-9650
am@corenyc.com

http://www.JacksonHeightsListings.com

Offline wooden_soldier

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2014, 06:08:48 PM »
Thanks agentarmen! Do you have any thoughts or predictions about the commercial side? Any developments to get excited about?

Offline European

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2014, 09:07:26 PM »
I remember 4-5 years ago, when we were buying 1 BR, 2 BR was around 320-330K. Today when we want to buy 2 BR, it is almost impossible to find one below 400k. It is scary to even think it will be over 500k in coming years.

Offline agentarmen

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2014, 09:45:26 AM »
Thanks agentarmen! Do you have any thoughts or predictions about the commercial side? Any developments to get excited about?

wooden_soldier: the commerical sector follows a very different matrix, and in Jackson Heights in particular it is not a brokerage driven market, so a broker's opinion I think would be highly speculative and for most part irrelevant. Things like the BID and the move and opening of locally established businesses have been in public eye, so we are basically all in the same position to speculate :) Your guess could very well be better than mine.

I remember 4-5 years ago, when we were buying 1 BR, 2 BR was around 320-330K. Today when we want to buy 2 BR, it is almost impossible to find one below 400k. It is scary to even think it will be over 500k in coming years.
European: Four years ago Armen K and I sold our very fisrst listing in Jackson Heights, which was a 2 bed 2 bath listing at Terrace View, for $350,000, which was believed to be a record in the builidng at the time. That same apartment, we issued a value opinion of $525,000 in today's market.

I also want to be crystal clear: our projections are based on premier TURN-KEY units, as this is the market sector that we specialize in. It is also our experience that the renovated units are the ones that command the higher premiums and drive our market. So by outperforming expectations, they pull up values and set new benchmarks for units that require renovation.

www.JacksonHeightsListings.com


Armen Meschian
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker

CORE
673 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10065
t:     212-612-9694
c:     917-848-6928
f:     212-612-9650
am@corenyc.com

http://www.JacksonHeightsListings.com

Offline SamInNY

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2014, 10:09:04 AM »
I guess other people have weighed in on this, but I have to admit to being puzzled by the rising prices presented as good news. It seems it's good news for real estate brokers and for people who want to leave. Otherwise, if we're owners aren't we planning to keep living in the apartments we own? So how does this help? If we're not already owners, we are being priced out of being able to buy for the first time. And those planning to sell, but who want to stay in the neighborhood, are being priced out of being able to move.

I know, I know; change is a part of living in NYC. But I was naively hoping that all the problems with the commercial rents would at least have this silver lining; i.e., giving us all a few more years of the neighborhood we chose to move to in the first place.

Offline Shelby2

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2014, 10:40:29 AM »
I guess other people have weighed in on this, but I have to admit to being puzzled by the rising prices presented as good news.

Yes, it's good news for some and bad news for others who have not purchased yet.  However, that said, I still see plenty of reasonably-priced listings that are not in the "turn key" category that agentarmen is talking about.  So there is probably still room for plenty of newcomers in the market.

Offline agentarmen

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2014, 11:15:18 AM »
I guess other people have weighed in on this, but I have to admit to being puzzled by the rising prices presented as good news. It seems it's good news for real estate brokers and for people who want to leave. Otherwise, if we're owners aren't we planning to keep living in the apartments we own? So how does this help? If we're not already owners, we are being priced out of being able to buy for the first time. And those planning to sell, but who want to stay in the neighborhood, are being priced out of being able to move.

I know, I know; change is a part of living in NYC. But I was naively hoping that all the problems with the commercial rents would at least have this silver lining; i.e., giving us all a few more years of the neighborhood we chose to move to in the first place.

SamInNY,
I see your point of view. From the perspective of a renter and a prospective purchaser in a rising market I can even identify with your concern. We've all experienced a down economy and have been negatively impacted one way or another. Home owners who bougt in mid 2000's saw their equity deflate and folks renting were scared or unable to purchase due to a downward spiraling housing AND job market. Folks who are relying on their current home as one of their retirement nest eggs, are feeling the relief today, and folks who are thinking about buying in this low interest rate enviroment are encouraged that they may see appreciation in the new home that they purchase.

Low interest rates and rising prices are not a full-proof formula or a suggestion as to what to do. It does however foster an enviroment that allows opportunity for more home buyers than what we'd seen in years passed.
Armen Meschian
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker

CORE
673 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10065
t:     212-612-9694
c:     917-848-6928
f:     212-612-9650
am@corenyc.com

http://www.JacksonHeightsListings.com

Offline SamInNY

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2014, 11:26:13 AM »


Yes, it's good news for some and bad news for others who have not purchased yet.

Maybe I'm being dense -- but is it good news for anyone who lives here and wants to stay? I know that having equity in an expensive apartment makes people feel wealthy -- but if you need the apartment to live in, what does it really change?

If it changes the nature of the neighborhood in ways that make it less attractive, it doesn't seem worth it to me.

But of course, that is assuming that other people moved here because they deliberately chose this neighborhood for what it was at the time they came here, rather than hoping it would become the neighborhood they wanted. Maybe I'm in the minority, there.

(To partly answer my own question: I'm not so dense that I can't imagine scenarios where the extra equity would be useful: if you have health problems down the line, and want to be able to sell your apartment to cover nursing home expenses, or want to have more to leave your children.)

Offline agentarmen

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2014, 12:05:07 PM »
SamInNY: let's please agree that equity in a home you own is a good thing, at least as apposed to negative equity :) 

I think you brushed on an important topic, and let me add something. I think that because majority of homes in Jackson Heights are coops, folks moving in are buyers, meaning people who are not in it short term. So their thought process which is then followed by a board screening is quite vigorous on both ends. I think it's safe to safe that they aren't "dating" the town and hoping to change it into "marriage material" they are actually "marrying" the town. :)

Many of our past buyers are now on boards and garden commertees, and we keep close touch with them still, and bump into them in town regularly.

In a nutshell more jobs and appreciating values are better in my opinion, than the opposite.

Armen Meschian
Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker

CORE
673 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10065
t:     212-612-9694
c:     917-848-6928
f:     212-612-9650
am@corenyc.com

http://www.JacksonHeightsListings.com

Offline Superclam

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2014, 02:07:09 PM »
(To partly answer my own question: I'm not so dense that I can't imagine scenarios where the extra equity would be useful: if you have health problems down the line, and want to be able to sell your apartment to cover nursing home expenses, or want to have more to leave your children.)

Yes, this is how extra equity is a good thing. I can't see it as a bad thing for anyone currently owning their home. I do agree that people should look at their house/apt. as a home instead of an investment. If you're happy living there and plan to stay, it kind of doesn't matter if it's worth 10% more than it was last year.

Offline Shelby2

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2014, 04:05:49 PM »

Maybe I'm being dense -- but is it good news for anyone who lives here and wants to stay?

I can't really see how it's bad news for anyone who has bought an apartment and is seeing an increase in their equity.  How is that a bad thing?  So far even with all the increases in property values over the years, it doesn't seem like the nature of the neighborhood has changed at all -- and this goes back some years.  Someone once posted an article about JH from the Times in some year like this one from 1991 (not sure if this is the exact article that was posted or not) but the neighborhood sounds almost the same as it did then.  Queens, Doorstep to the Whole Wide World, May 1991

So if there are no negative changes to the neighborhood in terms of its liveability, diversity and enjoyable elements, I would much rather have my home value go up rather than stay stagnant or go down.  I really can't find the negative in my home value rising, whether I plan to stay or go.  Eventually, everyone sells unless they die here.

Here's an excerpt from the article

Queens, Doorstep to the Whole Wide World
May 3, 1991
By RICHARD F. SHEPARD
THE crossroads of the world has moved eastward about a half-dozen miles from its traditional intersection at Times Square, to central Queens. Like continental plates overlapping on the unsettled global surface, the most unlikely mix of newcomers, from Colombians to Koreans, from Indians to Uruguayans, has established communities virtually beneath the flight paths of the airplanes that brought these settlers to their new world.

Here, along the axis of Roosevelt Avenue, which forms the border of Jackson Heights (on the north side) and Elmhurst (on the south), there is a stir of business and pleasure in a babble of tongues. Rest stops for the serendipitous between 71st Street and Junction Boulevard, under the unprepossessing shadow of the overhead No. 7 line on Roosevelt Avenue and on the more attractive surrounding streets, are in the shape of a generous assortment of restaurants, coffee shops and bakeries, stocked with food that ranges from the parilladas of the Rio de la Plata to the masala dosai that recalls life on the Ganges.

"Indian visitors first coming to New York want to see three things: the Empire State Building, the United Nations and 74th Street," said Abraham Mammen, whose Delhi Palace Restaurant is on 74th Street, on a block that reaches north to 37th Avenue and is almost completely lined with Indian entrepreneurs. "On a summer weekend, it is like Bombay."

Mr. Mammen's New York India, which includes a spillover on 37th Avenue, according to his count, has 17 jewelry stores, 21 sari shops, 12 grocery stores, 5 tailors, 7 travel agencies and 7 restaurants (only 1 of which -- his, he says -- has a liquor license). What is particularly striking about this busy subcontinental enclave inserted among Koreans and South Americans and older American-born generations is that few if any Indians live in it. It is all commercial and the Indian custom (as well as other consumers) comes from outside the neighborhood.

The Colombians, however, do live there, and along with them is a Spanish-speaking population that patronizes the dozens of restaurants that serve in a South American way.

"When Colombians make a date to meet in Jackson Heights, they say, 'I'll meet you in little Chapinero,' the name of a barrio in Bogota," said Bernardo Duque, director of the Colombian Independence Festival, an annual event in Flushing Meadows-Corona Park organized by the Colombian Civic Center. Last year, the event drew 500,000 spectators and will be repeated on July 20. The center of Colombian Queens, he said, is at 82d Street and Roosevelt Avenue.

"Our cooking was considered a novelty 20 years ago when our restaurant opened," said Felipe Diab, the Ecuadorean co-proprietor, with Pedro Tatarian of Uruguay, of La Fusta, a popular Argentine steakhouse at 80-32 Baxter Avenue, near Broadway, two blocks south of Roosevelt Avenue. "It was a commercial neighborhood then, and the Cubans were the first Latins to come to Queens."

The strange alphabet most predominant here is in the squares and circles of Korean, rather than in the brushstrokes of Chinese that are more common to Flushing, on the eastern reach of Roosevelt Avenue, past Shea Stadium. A walk through the doors of the New York Union Shopping Center, 71-17 Roosevelt Avenue, is an instant journey to what might be a large, modern department store in Seoul. It is easy to gain the impression that virtually everything in the store, including the customers, is Korean (the finely designed glassware and traditional cooking utensils certainly are, even if many of the appliances are Japanese or of other nationalities).

This Queens cultural melange is a far cry from the settings of immigrant or foreign settlement in Manhattan. For the sightseer, there is not the titillating exoticism of mean, and narrow, streets, of quaint people living in quaint poverty in quaint tenements. Some of the handsomest and earliest of garden apartments are clustered north of Roosevelt Avenue in Jackson Heights, buildings imaginatively ornamented and designed during the late 1920's and early 30's, frequently occupying entire blocks, bordered with grassy or bushy lawns that make the streets seem wider than they are.

In both Jackson Heights and Elmhurst, where the apartment houses are architecturally newer and less elaborate, there are streets and streets of one- and two-family dwellings, ranging from modern brick to Archie Bunker wood, stone and shingle. Although the ethnic varieties stand out in these comparatively bland surroundings, the population is generally of English-speaking New Yorkers, many of earlier immigrant stock: the Italians, Irish and Jews who had settled in the area with the coming of the Roosevelt Avenue elevated to Manhattan in 1917. Outside of the stores specifically catering to ethnic specialties, the look of the main streets, like 37th Avenue and the few blocks of shopping along 82d Street, which resembles a modern mall, would be indistinguishable from the center of any busy small town in the United States.

A closer look indicates that looks may be deceiving, and that the cosmopolitan complexion is reflected not only by proximity, but also by crossing the lines.

"You used to have kosher delis and you still have some very good Italian restaurants around here," said Dr. Barton Appel, a podiatrist who has had offices in Jackson Heights for 35 years. His taste may not have changed but it has broadened to an appreciation of the corvina, a haddocklike fish served in a butter-and-lemon sauce at Inca, an Ecuadorean restaurant at 85-01 Roosevelt Avenue.

The grocery store at 37-59 82d Street is a case in point. The carefully displayed fruits and vegetables offer for Latin palates cayote, red or black beans, outsize Colombian yams and the somewhat pumpkinlike squash (or squashlike pumpkin) called calabaza. A step away, the Asian taste is presented with tofu, bean sprouts, Chinese cabbage, Chinese noodles and Chinese pears, each attractively packaged in a small white-paper basket. That's togetherness in Jackson Heights.

Click link above for full article
« Last Edit: October 20, 2014, 04:14:41 PM by Shelby2 »

Offline Minimal4me

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2014, 07:14:21 PM »
European, we just bought a 1100 sf 2br for under $300k in January. If a buyer is open to post-war, there are still some to be found still at that price point. And if I were younger and more cash-strapped, I'd certainly be eyeing Corona boardering JH.

True, if money were no object -- I'd happily spring for the prewar with fireplace and second bathroom!

Well, I would... My DH leans towards modern.

All things being equal, we're both very happy with our 1946 "mid-century" 2br.

And parking in the building sealed the deal for us.

Offline jh_coop_buyer

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2014, 06:20:57 AM »
European, we just bought a 1100 sf 2br for under $300k in January. If a buyer is open to post-war, there are still some to be found still at that price point. And if I were younger and more cash-strapped, I'd certainly be eyeing Corona boardering JH.

True, if money were no object -- I'd happily spring for the prewar with fireplace and second bathroom!

I second your opinion. There are still 2 bedroom (maybe Junior 4) apartments in Jackson Heights under 300K. I just did a search of 2 bedroom apartments on redfin.com, the 11372 zipcode comes up 17 apartments that are priced under 300K. As one is already aware of, none of them are close to the 74th street express subway station, many of them are located bordering corona (such as South Ridge, North Ridge).

Please talk to local realtors, some of them have pocket listings. I wouldn't recommend Agent Armen, as he is focusing on the turn-key apartments and pushing the price on new highs.

Offline jh_coop_buyer

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2014, 06:38:32 AM »

I can't really see how it's bad news for anyone who has bought an apartment and is seeing an increase in their equity.  How is that a bad thing?  So far even with all the increases in property values over the years, it doesn't seem like the nature of the neighborhood has changed at all -- and this goes back some years.  Someone once posted an article about JH from the Times in some year like this one from 1991 (not sure if this is the exact article that was posted or not) but the neighborhood sounds almost the same as it did then.  Queens, Doorstep to the Whole Wide World, May 1991

So if there are no negative changes to the neighborhood in terms of its liveability, diversity and enjoyable elements,

 As mentioned in Minimal4me's other post, the bad thing for the increasing value of the equity is that it is going to push out families (I'm talking about owners, not renters) growing in size and it's harder for their children to purchase their own apartments in the neighborhood. Of course, a higher price will eventually translate to higher property tax and higher rent, which tends to push out first renters and then owners of moderate income to another neighborhood to stretch their dollars longer . 

Thanks Shelby2 for the NYT article. Yeah, nothing has changed much for the past 23 years. Some positive change is the Travers Park and the Farmer's market. It's still too early to know how the 37th road plaza affects the quality of life for the residents. The NYT article mentioned Koreans,  I hardly see any Korean stores north of Roosevelt ave.


Offline Shelby2

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Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2015, 09:40:37 PM »
Wanted to share our latest article on Jackson heights pricing projections, which corolates with an article dating back to May 30th 2013. Direct link: http://www.jacksonheightslistings.com/2015-jackson-heights-real-estate-pricing-projections/

---
2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
October 19th, 2014

You may recall the article we published on May 30th 2013 titled Unemployment Improves, Jackson Heights Real Estate Market Soars, where we projected quote: “median price for renovated Jackson Heights one bedroom units will reach $300,000 + in the coming year and two bedroom units will trade in the area of $450,000.” With that prediction proving accurate I believe now is a time for a new projection.

Based on everything we are experiencing first hand, we now believe that towards the fall of 2015 median price for renovated one bedrooms in Jackson Heights will reach $350,000 and median price for renovated two bedrooms will reach $525,000.

Though we take pride in our consistency of being in tune with our local market, our projection from May 30th of 2013 was based strictly on professional instinct. Today we are projecting based on many other markers already present in our marketplace and in a much healthier economic environment.

www.JacksonHeightsListings.com

I just noticed a one bedroom at the Berkley listed at $375,000 http://streeteasy.com/building/35_24-78-street-jackson_heights/b58 and also a one bedroom at the Carlton House for $415,000 http://streeteasy.com/sale/1139765-coop-34-41-85th-street-jackson-heights

I don't recall too many one bedrooms hitting those listing prices (near $400K) in the past.

Jackson Heights Life

Re: 2015 Jackson Heights Real Estate Pricing Projections
« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2015, 09:40:37 PM »